2018 assembly election results analysis: part 1

Background

The historical Telangana statehood movement culminated in a victory on Thursday February 20, 2014 with the Indian parliament approving the Telangana formation bill. The state came into formal existence on June 2, 2014.

The 2014 general elections were held after the passing of the bill but prior to the appointed day. The elected representatives (Members of Legislative Assembly, MLA's in short) as well as the first cabinet led by Kalvakuntla Chandrashekar Rao (KCR), assumed office in the recently formed state.

The assembly was dissolved a few months ahead of schedule on September 6, 2018. The first elections to the newly formed state conducted on December 7, 2018 passed off uneventfully but for a handful of minor incidents without any need for repoll. The votes were counted and results declared on December 11, 2018.

The elections as well as the outcome have been described as historic (or a game changing moment) by several observers. For starters, this is the first time ever when no communist representative will be present in the assembly.

My four part analysis on the 2016 Greater Hyderabad Municipal Corporation (GHMC) elections was well received among friends as well as the general community. I am writing the present series as a companion piece and in continuation of the previous report.

Parties & formations

As in 2016, YS Jaganmohan Reddy (Jagan), the head of YCP & opposition leader in the neighboring AP, decided to abstain from contesting in Telangana and focus on his own state elections due in a few months. While this will certainly result in their losing state party recognition in Telangana this is probably a wiser decision compared to the choice of contesting & losing opted for by Nara Chandra Babu Naidu, the AP Chief Minister.

Jana Sena Party (JSP), an unrecognized political party registered in 2014 by actor Konidela Kalyan Babu (Pawan Kalyan) that never tested electoral waters since its founding, also decided to stay away for the same reasons.

Loksatta party (LSP), an unrecognized political party founded and led by ex-bureaucrat Dr. Nagabhairava Jaya Prakash Narayan, appears to have faded into oblivion after a few generally disastrous forays in Indian elections. There appears to be no evidence on its present existence or plans for future elections.

Telangana Rashtra Samithi (TRS) fought all constituencies on its own. All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen (Majlis or MIM) contested in eight seats. In spite of the largely token contest in these seats, TRS & Majlis leaders proclaimed a "friendly relationship" at every possible opportunity.

Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), the central ruling party, fought the elections on their strength (but for a single seat conceded to a minor ally).

Telugu Desham Party (TDP), the ruling party in AP, has recently broken away from the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) grouping. TDP supremo Naidu forged an alliance under the leadership of the Congress. The others members of the alliance were CPI (Communist Party of India) & TJS (Telangana Jana Samithi), a recently registered political party founded and led by Prof. Muddasani Kodandaram, the most recent entrant to the state electoral political scene. Though the alliance was called a Grand Alliance (GA or mahakutami in Telugu), it is probably easiest to refer it as the well known and long standing United Progressive Alliance (UPA).

As probably expected, UPA seat allocation negotiations ran into protracted difficulties over several weeks. Ultimately it settled down to a slightly uneasy situation with Congress & TJS indulging in "friendly fights" in four seats.

CPM (Communist Party of India Marxist) has been somewhat active at the ground level in the last several months together with a ragtag group titled BLP (Bahujan Left Party), an interesting but hitherto untested Ambedkar-Marx "lal-neel" coalition. CPM & BLP teamed up with MBT (Majlis Bachao Tehreek) to form a loose alliance unimaginatively called BLF (Bahujan Left Front).

Objectives & overview of this analysis

This introductory post will be limited to the following:

·         Summary of the mandate

·         Historical comparison of the verdict

In subsequent posts, I will attempt to provide information including answers to the following questions (in no particular order):

·         Methodology of this analysis including geographic definitions & information sources

·         What is the true scope of this victory?

·         Geographic & demographic indicators (to the extent possible in the limited data availability context)

·         What is likely to happen if Loksabha elections are held today?

·         How did the inter-alliance dynamics (both UPA & NDA) play out?

·         Did BJP play the spoilsport by splitting the "anti-incumbency" vote?

·         Did Naidu's carefully planned "soft coup" work out?

·         What was the success if any of the carefully orchestrated media campaigns & sly mind games?

·         How did the pollsters including Lagadapati Rajagopal (the infamous pepper spray perpetrator) fare?

·         What impact if any did the various defectors have?

·         How did my 2016 expectations fare?

I can possibly answer several questions the readers may have. Please do let me know if you need further information on any specific subject.

Summary of the mandate

The highlights of the result are tabulated below:

Party	Votes	Percent	Contested	Won
TRS	9,700,749	46.9%	119	88
UPA	6,787,535	32.8%	123	21
BJP	1,463,883	7.1%	119	1
Majlis	561,089	2.7%	8	7
BLF	207,589	1.0%	107	0
Others *	1,974,613	9.6%	1,464	2
Total	20,695,458		1,940	119

* Including NOTA i.e. the "none of the above" option. I am treating the NOTA button in each constituency as an individual candidate and the overall NOTA category as a "party" in my analysis

Historical comparison

The historical nature of the verdict becomes clear when we compare the present results with the last nine elections in the Telangana region. It may be noted in the passing results prior to 1978 are not amenable to statistical analysis: for example it is not possible to compute vote share or winning majority when seats are won uncontested.

Election	Winner	Runner	Winner	Runner	Advantage	Seats won
1978	INC	JNP	39.9%	24.0%	15.9%	65
1983 *	INC	TDP	36.1%	33.1%	3.0%	43
1985	TDP	INC	35.5%	33.3%	2.2%	59
1989	INC	TDP	43.1%	27.5%	15.6%	58
1994	TDP	INC	38.1%	27.9%	10.2%	69
1999	NDA	INC	44.6%	38.9%	5.7%	58
2004	UPA	NDA	42.7%	37.1%	5.6%	74
2009 *	GA	INC	35.4%	33.4%	2.0%	54
2014	TRS	UPA	34.0%	25.9%	8.1%	63
2018	TRS	UPA	46.9%	32.8%	14.1%	88

* In these two elections, the formation winning the maximum votes in Telangana came second best in the then united state

The writing on the wall, going back four decades, is crystal clear and resounding:

·         TRS broke the hitherto strong 45% vote share barrier

·         TRS exceeded the "two-third seats" super majority comfortably, a feat that few in the region can recall from their memory

·         TRS enjoyed a vote share advantage not seen after the heady days of 1989 when Congress sent TDP tumbling in an election that saw Jakkula Chittaranjan Das beating NT Ramarao (NTR) in a classic David-Goliath fight

Watch this space for further details!